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Prediction markets for New Directors

What will happen in 2024? [Movies & Series Edition 🎥 ]

Mar 14, 9:46 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

295048

Why did Mark Cuban step down from Shark Tank and sell the Mavs?

Nov 30, 6:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

281769

Will China suffer a financial crash in 2024?

Jan 9, 8:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.43%chance

15552

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

941

Will Google Deepmind's autonomous agent be based on Gemini?

Sep 20, 9:27 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

75.17%chance

14287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

979

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will the excavation at the Montreal Royal Victoria Hospital site locate unmarked graves from the CIA's MK-ULTRA program?

Jan 13, 9:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.26%chance

12185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

943

Will Andrej Karpathy start or cofound his own AI company before EOY 2024?

Apr 9, 12:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.04%chance

351494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

886

Will Google Deepmind reveal their own autonomous agent in 2024?

Sep 13, 2:23 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

41.71%chance

16442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

993

990

Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?

Oct 22, 7:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.47%chance

10905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

786

Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024?

Jun 8, 2:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.71%chance

8211423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3461

289

Will a movie featuring an AI-generated actor win a major film award by the end of 2024?

May 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.12%chance

351151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

969

Will ByteDance release an open model more powerful than Gemini before July?

Mar 7, 4:02 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

8.35%chance

302991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

880

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Sebastian Stan's 'A Different Man' Premieres at New Directors, New Films in NYC
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5
3 months
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