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NBER News
Prediction markets for NBER
Prediction markets for NBER
Will the US officially enter a recession in 2023? (Announcement by NBER)
Dec 2, 4:38 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
4.26%
chance
113
53777
Option
Votes
YES
NO
9254
446
US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
Nov 14, 8:23 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
19.88%
chance
22
3060
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1624
767
If the NBER declares a recession in 2023 or 2024, will they do that after the recession has ended?
May 9, 8:47 PM
Jul 1, 2:59 AM
59.96%
chance
3
39
Option
Votes
NO
YES
111
71
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
Feb 9, 1:29 AM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
19.31%
chance
835
469761
Option
Votes
YES
NO
13399
3993
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
Feb 19, 8:51 AM
Jan 1, 8:45 AM
41.83%
chance
40
5397
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1011
982
US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
Nov 14, 8:37 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
20.77%
chance
23
1111
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1159
921
Will the USA get AGI before we have another recession?
Jan 3, 12:54 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
12.39%
chance
49
4120
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1239
928
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
Mar 1, 4:42 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
61.38%
chance
2
26
Option
Votes
NO
YES
146
99
If there's a recession before election day 2024, will a Democrat win the presidential election?
Dec 11, 3:54 PM
Sep 2, 2:59 AM
36%
chance
8
261
Option
Votes
NO
YES
262
224
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Authors
8
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6
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Authors
9
3 months
Climate
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Authors
9
3 months
Bio
Science
NBER and Philadelphia Fed Study Reveals Impact of Income Insurance on Student Loan Participation and Adverse Selection
Authors
4
3 months
Crime
Politics
Culture
U.S. News Grows Systematically More Negative Over Past Half-Century, Affecting Consumer Sentiment
Authors
11
6 months
Economics
Business
Supreme Court Considers Whether Politicians' Social Media Accounts Should Remain Open to Online Criticism, EFF, Amazon Research Awards, Brookings Institution, Heritage Foundation, Princeton University, EFF, global catastrophic risk teams, NBER
Authors
7
8 months
Politics
US Median Net Worth Sees Largest Three-Year Increase Since 1989
Authors
5
9 months
Economics
Business
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