National Press News

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.03%chance

144070

OptionVotes

YES

5697

3703

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Oct 10, 10:53 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

41.16%chance

212022

OptionVotes

YES

1607

1204

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.39%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

1351

740

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.68%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

1102

950

Will there be a death at a Trump Rally in 2024?

Jan 13, 12:52 AMJan 23, 7:59 AM

29.9%chance

20921

OptionVotes

YES

1050

968

Will India go into Recession by the end of 2024?

Jan 14, 8:19 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

18.08%chance

18472

OptionVotes

YES

1246

903

Will Lockheed Martin deny that it was in possession of UFOs before the end of 2024?

Dec 11, 12:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.38%chance

13433

OptionVotes

YES

1067

968

Will the author(s) of the xz-utils backdoor be caught?

Mar 30, 7:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.79%chance

441315

OptionVotes

YES

1508

842

Ezra Klein Show: Will Simon Rosenberg be right that Biden will win by a margin in the "high single digits"?

Jan 25, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

361895

OptionVotes

YES

1554

861

Will the "Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution" replicate by 2024 August 07?

Aug 7, 6:33 AMAug 7, 2:59 PM

6.85%chance

201833

OptionVotes

YES

1890

730

Will any commercial carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution become operational by 2025?

Aug 7, 6:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

5.16%chance

16648

OptionVotes

YES

1606

918

A listening station on Kerguelen Island? (Revealed before 2030)

Sep 12, 8:42 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.13%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

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National Press News

Prediction markets for National Press

Prediction markets for National Press

Prediction markets for National Press

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Will there be a death at a Trump Rally in 2024?

Will India go into Recession by the end of 2024?

Will Lockheed Martin deny that it was in possession of UFOs before the end of 2024?

Will the author(s) of the xz-utils backdoor be caught?

Ezra Klein Show: Will Simon Rosenberg be right that Biden will win by a margin in the "high single digits"?

Will the "Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution" replicate by 2024 August 07?

Will any commercial carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution become operational by 2025?

A listening station on Kerguelen Island? (Revealed before 2030)

Latest stories

Prediction markets for National Press

Prediction markets for National Press

Prediction markets for National Press

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

(M1000 Subsidy) UK builds 300,000 housing units in any year before 2030

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Will there be a death at a Trump Rally in 2024?

Will India go into Recession by the end of 2024?

Will Lockheed Martin deny that it was in possession of UFOs before the end of 2024?