National Party News

Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?

Jan 13, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

14769

OptionVotes

YES

1128

617

Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2025?

Jun 30, 2:30 PMJan 5, 11:00 AM

24.6%chance

20990

OptionVotes

YES

996

987

Will all third parties reach a combined 5 percent nationally in 2024?

Mar 22, 11:47 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

73.02%chance

16437

OptionVotes

YES

1090

934

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.1%chance

15427

OptionVotes

YES

1249

891

Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?

Jan 24, 6:49 AMOct 14, 11:00 AM

88.23%chance

101292

OptionVotes

YES

1366

904

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Jul 14, 11:26 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

11%chance

10748

OptionVotes

YES

1188

946

Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024?

Jun 30, 2:30 PMJan 5, 11:00 AM

7.27%chance

111002

OptionVotes

YES

1606

916

Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election.

Mar 22, 7:04 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

81.53%chance

6690

OptionVotes

YES

832

459

Will the Scottish National Party get more than 50% of the vote share in Scotland in the next UK general election?

Dec 24, 5:24 PMJan 31, 12:00 PM

2.47%chance

212831

OptionVotes

YES

3272

820

Will a 2024 third-party candidate debate a major-party candidate in a nationally televised US presidential debate?

Sep 15, 8:09 PMNov 6, 5:59 AM

17.52%chance

685

OptionVotes

YES

255

135

Will the Bierpartei ("Beer Party") gain enough votes to enter the Austrian National Council in the next election?

Mar 6, 8:20 AMOct 23, 9:59 PM

76.73%chance

6175

OptionVotes

YES

337

123

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

YES

235

140

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National Party News

Prediction markets for National Party

Prediction markets for National Party

Prediction markets for National Party

Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?

Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2025?

Will all third parties reach a combined 5 percent nationally in 2024?

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024?

Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election.

Will the Scottish National Party get more than 50% of the vote share in Scotland in the next UK general election?

Will a 2024 third-party candidate debate a major-party candidate in a nationally televised US presidential debate?

Will the Bierpartei ("Beer Party") gain enough votes to enter the Austrian National Council in the next election?

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for National Party

Prediction markets for National Party

Prediction markets for National Party

Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?

Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2025?

Will all third parties reach a combined 5 percent nationally in 2024?

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Will the U.K. Conservative Party lead in a national poll by the end of 2024?

Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election.

Will the Scottish National Party get more than 50% of the vote share in Scotland in the next UK general election?

Will a 2024 third-party candidate debate a major-party candidate in a nationally televised US presidential debate?