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James Clapper, 'Mr. October Surprise,' Accused of Rigging 2016 and 2020 Debates Against Trump
Authors
9
5 days
Washington DC
Crime
Politics
Prediction markets for National Intelligence
Prediction markets for National Intelligence
Will the Director of National Intelligence believe Havana Syndrome is caused by a foreign adversary in 2024?
Apr 5, 9:22 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9.12%
chance
12
610
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1396
911
10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated]
Dec 25, 1:43 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
65.75%
chance
43
1772
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1300
767
What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?
Sep 18, 12:45 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
113
66057
Will U.S. Army Sergeant Korbein Schultz serve time in prison for selling military secrets to China?
Mar 18, 11:48 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
91.26%
chance
11
599
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1539
870
Will mitigation of AI propaganda & "botpocalypse" concerns get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Nov 1, 9:04 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
59.64%
chance
6
43
Option
Votes
NO
YES
223
191
Which will be the first 6th generation fighter to enter service with a country's military?
Apr 6, 7:46 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
5
241
Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 19, 4:38 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
3.97%
chance
6
272
Option
Votes
YES
NO
440
121
Will the first fully AI-refereed soccer match take place before 2040?
Apr 9, 10:15 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
47.55%
chance
5
118
Option
Votes
NO
YES
474
406
Impact of AI: Will the number of lawyers in the U.S. decrease by 2030?
May 3, 8:45 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
61.45%
chance
6
83
Option
Votes
NO
YES
126
79
ASI when? and What Civilization in year 3000?
Mar 29, 7:34 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
10
119
Which countries will make major efforts to influence the 2024 US presidential election?
Apr 10, 8:24 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
4
67
A listening station on Kerguelen Island? (Revealed before 2030)
Sep 12, 8:42 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
44.13%
chance
3
25
Option
Votes
YES
NO
95
86
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