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Prediction markets for Naming

Will X, Meta, Snapchat, instagram, YouTube, twitch or TikTok ANNOUNCE a name change before the end of Q2 2025?

May 31, 5:20 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

30.7%chance

161074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2674

1286

Will there be at least 3 players on the leaderboard all named "Rationalussy" on diep.io by EOY 2026?

Jun 19, 2:18 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

41.9%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1587

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 20 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.5%chance

10445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

944

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.99%chance

17630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

892

The percent of Boba Tea drinkers in Cupertino with Chinese names goes up in the year to May 2025

May 19, 4:48 PMMay 19, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?

May 21, 3:39 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

40.28%chance

6352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.26%chance

8865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

804

Will iOS 2026 be named iOS20?

Jun 15, 4:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.03%chance

6280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

799

Will NASA's moon time zone be named "Coordinated Lunar Time (LTC)"?

Apr 22, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.87%chance

16298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

981

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?

Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.13%chance

12604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

973

Will a Top Level Domain (TLD) other than .com be in the top 10 most expensive domain names before the end of 2028?

Mar 16, 6:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.95%chance

12602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

952

Will Manifold be mentioned by name in Ranked Choice, the SQL to Bet On Love?

Mar 20, 5:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

75.78%chance

11788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

960

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