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Prediction markets for MultiChoice
Prediction markets for MultiChoice
Which of these Manifold suggestions I've talked about will be implemented by EOY 2024?
Jan 5, 3:46 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
27
10476
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Dec 10, 4:53 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
6
1661
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?
Apr 9, 1:33 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
35%
chance
126
108302
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1207
1121
Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. Will there be a debate, and if so what will the judges conclude?
Apr 9, 1:38 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
32
2293
If Scott Alexander organizes a Covid Origins Debate, will judges rule for lab leak? [Resolves 50% if no debate by 2025]
May 16, 5:06 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
52.14%
chance
7
136
Option
Votes
NO
YES
104
96
What percentage of sought-after works will be discovered in the Herculaneum Library?
Mar 13, 5:34 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
36.24%
chance
5
100
Option
Votes
YES
NO
230
142
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