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Prediction markets for Most Wanted
Will AGI lead to a utopia where all of people's needs and most of their wants are met, or to power concentration?
Dec 18, 8:10 AM
Dec 31, 8:59 PM
47
1334
FBI most wanted has someone listed for a crime committed in space through 2034
Sep 19, 12:45 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
8.31%
chance
9
386
Option
Votes
YES
NO
523
146
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Mar 24, 2:46 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
199
80893
If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
Feb 22, 7:11 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
208
30648
What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 8:29 PM
Dec 31, 6:29 PM
49
8156
What words or phrases will Donald Trump say or write before the election?
Apr 7, 7:59 PM
Nov 19, 4:59 AM
256
170530
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
291448
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
Oct 10, 4:41 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
269
122241
Which songs will be covered for Joker: Folie à Deux?
Mar 22, 10:30 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
18
2207
In Rings of Power season 2, which of the following rumors will be true?
Jan 26, 7:07 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9
1183
Which elite global achievers will join manifold? Nobel prize, Nebula, Pope, EGOT, Pulitzer? 50+ Y/N options, research op
Dec 1, 5:39 PM
Jul 1, 4:59 AM
19
2655
Why did we survive AI until 2100?
Jan 17, 4:58 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
28
1840
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