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NERV
MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES INC
3.14
+1.95%
NERV
MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES INC
3.14
+1.95%
Prediction markets for Minerva
Prediction markets for Minerva
Will I drop out of Minerva University by 2027?
Feb 24, 4:02 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
57.16%
chance
27
1829
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1008
899
Will Minerva University survive the next 10 years?
Jan 2, 10:12 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
76.41%
chance
2
40
Option
Votes
NO
YES
110
48
Will I rejoin my Minerva University cohort in Seoul?
Apr 11, 11:42 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
27.18%
chance
5
135
Option
Votes
YES
NO
275
126
Will Minerva University survive the next 10 years?
Jan 2, 10:11 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
73%
chance
4
61
Option
Votes
NO
YES
134
64
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
Apr 18, 12:18 AM
Jul 7, 4:00 PM
280
345976
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?
Dec 15, 12:39 AM
Jan 2, 6:29 PM
41.17%
chance
32
1194
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1196
794
Will the first AI to get IMO gold use formal methods?
Jan 11, 5:04 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
50%
chance
18
2096
Option
Votes
NO
YES
987
982
Will SOTA on MATH in Sep 2024 utilize a hard-coded search/amplification procedure?
Sep 28, 3:29 PM
Oct 1, 3:59 AM
55.2%
chance
17
1103
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1121
881
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?
Oct 27, 5:11 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
8.61%
chance
11
715
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1249
958
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8
8 months
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