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Mechanised News
Prediction markets for Mechanised
Prediction markets for Mechanised
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:45 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
12.1%
chance
25
4297
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1185
948
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:41 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
28.69%
chance
91
30733
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1330
1154
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
Jul 4, 9:34 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
56.79%
chance
30
3137
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1073
858
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?
Jul 3, 5:13 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
18.82%
chance
21
906
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1114
956
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
Apr 14, 12:44 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
12.28%
chance
34
12260
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1362
904
By 2025, percent of 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability solved?
Jul 20, 11:55 PM
Jan 1, 5:42 AM
30.45%
chance
7
153
Option
Votes
YES
NO
240
185
In 2025, category distribution for solved problems from the 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability?
Jul 21, 2:18 AM
Jan 1, 5:32 PM
6
296
What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?
Dec 18, 9:51 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
13
271
Will "Mechanistically Eliciting Latent Behaviors in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
May 1, 1:24 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Will "How useful is mechanistic interpretability?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Feb 14, 6:48 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
25.36%
chance
3
46
Option
Votes
NO
YES
118
73
Will mechanistic interpretability have more academic impact than representation engineering by the end of 2025?
Oct 6, 7:14 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
66.96%
chance
5
103
Option
Votes
NO
YES
154
75
Mechanistic Interpretability Stock (Permanent)
Feb 9, 8:29 AM
Aug 11, 9:43 PM
23
111263
Option
Votes
NO
YES
551
353
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Indian Army Tests ATGMs at 17,000 Feet in Sikkim on April 11
Authors
8
3 months
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