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Prediction markets for Material Impact

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2050?

Dec 23, 7:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.48%chance

20712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

845

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26%chance

17479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

905

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2030?

Dec 23, 6:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

9.24%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

921

7) Strategic investments from cloud providers into AI startups [...] will be challenged by regulators.

Dec 25, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.95%chance

131057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

889

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?

Dec 23, 6:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.87%chance

10643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1181

946

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?

Dec 23, 6:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.91%chance

295138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

891

Will an Atlas Fellow launch an AGI startup worth >$1 million by 2030?

Feb 4, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.83%chance

3920796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

777

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2029?

Dec 23, 6:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7.52%chance

211755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

925

Will the "Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution" replicate by 2024 August 07?

Aug 7, 6:33 AMAug 7, 2:59 PM

6.85%chance

201833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1890

730

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?

Dec 23, 6:22 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

5.12%chance

171848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1646

909

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2025?

Dec 23, 6:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4.59%chance

276926

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

939

Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2024?

Dec 23, 4:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2.27%chance

191787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

948

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Tierra Biosciences Raises $11.4M, Aims to Rival DeepMind in Protein AI
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