Mass General News

New Alzheimer's Vaccine and Drug Show Promise, Human Trials Next Week
Authors
5
13 days
Health
Science

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

582719

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Jan 2, 3:23 AMDec 2, 5:59 AM

61.2%chance

21512668

OptionVotes

YES

5239

4210

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

178405

OptionVotes

YES

6331

3305

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.82%chance

664106

OptionVotes

YES

1469

1040

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.25%chance

704402

OptionVotes

YES

1359

1248

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 31, 2:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.27%chance

582347

OptionVotes

YES

1307

1246

Will SpaceX perform fewer launches in 2025 than 2024?

Mar 30, 5:00 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.42%chance

16417

OptionVotes

YES

1206

926

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.06%chance

181026

OptionVotes

YES

1021

939

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.47%chance

12272

OptionVotes

YES

1045

966

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

Dec 17, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

31.69%chance

18641

OptionVotes

YES

1047

970

The US becomes much more like shadowrun before EOY 2024

Sep 22, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

11228

OptionVotes

YES

1168

929

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

1033

921

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New Alzheimer's Vaccine and Drug Show Promise, Human Trials Next Week
Authors
5
13 days
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Science
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Authors
6
2 months
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Authors
9
3 months
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8
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Boston
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Authors
7
6 months
Boston
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Mass General News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Mass General

Prediction markets for Mass General

Prediction markets for Mass General

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Will SpaceX perform fewer launches in 2025 than 2024?

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will Japan become militarily involved?

If China tries to invade Taiwan, will India become militarily involved?

The US becomes much more like shadowrun before EOY 2024

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Mass General

Prediction markets for Mass General

Prediction markets for Mass General

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?