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Prediction markets for Live Law

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.46%chance

705493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6274

6067

Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033

Jun 26, 7:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.74%chance

662965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

918

Will my children need to learn to drive?

Jul 3, 10:37 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

26.82%chance

10189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

926

If Trump wins the 2024 election, will it be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22.04%chance

11276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

919

Will any country ban tobacco for the next generation by 2026?

Aug 23, 8:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.54%chance

321784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

945

Will there be anywhere childfree city before 2030?

Aug 8, 2:49 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

12.12%chance

432529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

956

Will Julian Assange be extradited to the USA by the end of 2024?

Aug 14, 9:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.93%chance

9918244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4739

534

Will any country ban tobacco for the next generation by 2030?

Aug 22, 11:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.52%chance

21948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

968

Will any AI be shown to accurately simulate an amoeba or heavier on the molecular level before 2025-07-01?

Aug 13, 9:44 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

7.43%chance

311522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

952

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

143

Will there exist a decent open-source call recorder for iOS by March 2025?

Oct 31, 1:35 AMFeb 28, 9:59 PM

33.27%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

76

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