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Prediction markets for Liberal government

Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?

Sep 11, 5:08 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

12.28%chance

17962420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8108

1875

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

57.21%chance

12410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

973

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.3%chance

16603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

984

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77%chance

10267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

959

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.43%chance

30772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

909

Will the Conservative Party of Canada form a Majority Government after the 45th Canadian Federal Election?

Sep 7, 6:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.62%chance

555416

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2161

677

Will Justin Trudeau stop being Canada's Prime Minister by the conclusion of the next federal election (20 Oct 2025 or earlier)?

Dec 1, 7:14 PMOct 23, 7:00 PM

90.35%chance

7213268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2965

457

Any of these 50 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024 (improved!)

Jan 1, 4:11 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

38.23%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

78

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for selecting national governments in EU or US before 2060?

Aug 28, 8:18 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12.51%chance

3191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

77

Which School will be the best Public University in the Country

Dec 28, 8:19 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

12262

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

5623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

80

Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?

Mar 16, 8:10 AMSep 27, 2:29 PM

27.54%chance

7194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

133

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