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Prediction markets for LAST YEAR

🗓️2024 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (39 DONE)

Jan 28, 7:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6816274

Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?

Mar 25, 8:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88%chance

14668847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3789

2218

Will 2024 be the hottest year in the last 25 years

Dec 25, 6:05 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

71.27%chance

8820936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

842

will i last more than 1 consecutive year at college?

Aug 15, 1:00 PMSep 1, 2:59 PM

68.71%chance

14360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

984

Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation below 3%

Jan 3, 4:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.97%chance

17842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

875

Will another NYC subway station permanently close before July 1st 2027, which will be 10 years since the last closure?

Nov 29, 5:12 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

20.78%chance

13212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

957

Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?

May 20, 12:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

79.75%chance

213615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation above 2%

Jan 3, 4:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.4%chance

201116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1724

794

Will Mike Johnson last at least one year as US House Speaker?

Oct 25, 6:19 PMOct 26, 5:59 AM

90.14%chance

333447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2460

624

Conditional on Effective Altruism lasting for a thousand years, will EAs still say that this was their finest hour?

Nov 19, 5:04 AMNov 19, 5:01 AM

35.18%chance

393995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

638

Will this platform last long enough to make good on 10+ year old bets?

Jun 26, 2:59 AMJun 26, 3:59 AM

88.7%chance

15686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1311

915

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

10.72%chance

17329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

942

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