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Prediction markets for Iterative

Will there be a model that has a 75% win rate against the latest iteration of GPT-4 as of January 1st, 2025?

Apr 21, 10:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.35%chance

6915054

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2741

2219

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Oct 3, 10:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.28%chance

714986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

1317

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

976

"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within two years

May 4, 7:10 PMMay 4, 7:05 PM

13.15%chance

4131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

[Metaculus] Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

52.49%chance

6198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

123

"Large models aren’t more capable in the long run if we can iterate faster on small models" within five years

May 4, 7:11 PMMay 4, 7:05 PM

18.27%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

39

Will the "Hot Stove Theory of Iteration" be cited by someone important by EOY 2030?

Feb 8, 1:23 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66.89%chance

965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

195

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

Feb 23, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.51%chance

7172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

347

171

Which papers will the next GPT iteration technical report cite?

Apr 5, 2:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5152

Will the fifth major model iteration of OpenAI contain the string "GPT-5" in its name (API)?

Jun 20, 4:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

94.28%chance

2310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

406

25

Will ITER create first plasma before the end of 2025?

Jun 18, 5:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.13%chance

10969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

860

72

Iterated Amplification Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:36 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

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