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Prediction markets for Internet First

Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?

Mar 16, 5:09 PMAug 16, 4:59 AM

21.37%chance

183790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15275

10433

Contingent on Twitter "collapsing", no SINGLE widely recognized successor will emerge within TWO years.

Nov 4, 6:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.11%chance

243392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

981

932

Will Joe Biden fall again during his first term as President?

Nov 6, 8:45 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

53.91%chance

15472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

987

Will Disney+’s Percy Jackson cover all 5 books before being cancelled?

Apr 2, 2:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.32%chance

19293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

941

10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated]

Dec 25, 1:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.75%chance

431772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

767

Will I run my first half marathon in 1:54 or less?

Mar 18, 7:24 AMJul 7, 8:59 PM

36.56%chance

191404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

576

Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?

Nov 8, 5:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.76%chance

141679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

954

942

Where will Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet model rank on LMSys Chatbot Arena on July 7th? Ahead of GPT, Gemini?

Jun 21, 4:48 AMJul 8, 3:59 AM

10850216

What is the next password manager the Wirecutter will start recommending?

Apr 14, 1:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

18503

Flaggy Flag Stock

Apr 5, 1:04 PMApr 6, 2:59 AM

7930

OptionVotes

NO

YES

89

85

Will auditable global info systems be developed that harness the protocols applied to scientific research?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.19%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

361

202

Will bots make free, open social media infeasible by the end of 2027?

Jun 20, 6:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.69%chance

9173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

145

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