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Prediction markets for International Relations

By 2030, will New Zealand 🇳🇿 have officially announced a name change for international relations to include Aotearoa?

Jul 31, 10:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

16.51%chance

141442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1640

784

Will the ability of F-1 international students to work in the US be severely curtailed before July 2025?

Jun 16, 7:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

41.5%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5090

3695

What will be the official cause of the Prigozhin plane crash as reported by Russia after their investigation?

Aug 23, 5:56 PMJun 30, 5:56 PM

31554650

Will an AI get bronze or silver on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.42%chance

12725778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

944

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.52%chance

216782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3277

305

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2050?

Aug 9, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.76%chance

392168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

821

Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?

Jul 26, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.64%chance

221447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

971

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

48.04%chance

121390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

961

Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?

May 20, 5:59 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

18.69%chance

9914895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

479

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.68%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

950

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

34.55%chance

18981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

942

Will Indonesia open embassy in Israel before the end of 2025

Apr 11, 4:51 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

34.27%chance

11184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

969

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South Africa's Naledi Pandor Challenges Iran Label, Calls for Gaza Protests, Urges Benjamin Netanyahu's Arrest
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4 months
Israel
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