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Prediction markets for intelligence service

Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves MKT in 10 years)

Jan 24, 6:31 PMJan 24, 6:31 PM

23.18%chance

8322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

165

When will Apple, Inc. turn Apple Intelligence into a paid, premium service and begin charging users for access?

Jun 11, 2:34 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

161076

🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? #2

Feb 28, 7:57 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

7132940

Will AI-operated haircuts be bookable in at least two cities by the end of 2025?

Sep 26, 9:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.44%chance

301519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1404

922

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.29%chance

202251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

795

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

23.26%chance

411969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

901

Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.85%chance

23593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

940

Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jul 1, 5:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.31%chance

10290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

969

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

70.34%chance

172705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

913

Will the AI-powered romantic partners market exceed $10 billion yearly revenue before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.11%chance

15600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

872

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

Jun 16, 2:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.21%chance

29877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

929

Will it be revealed that at least 3 people with Wikipedia articles have done IQ selection on their children before 2028?

Jun 27, 4:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.08%chance

473318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1482

680

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Roman Chervinsky Allegedly Coordinated Nord Stream Pipeline Bombing
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8 months
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