Institute for Government News

US Government official visits Wuhan Institute of Virology any time through 2027

Sep 22, 7:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.97%chance

596

OptionVotes

YES

112

108

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

37.03%chance

1297151

OptionVotes

YES

2739

2274

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.54%chance

341600

OptionVotes

YES

1067

867

Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?

Apr 1, 3:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.66%chance

7716955

OptionVotes

YES

1770

1210

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.2%chance

13607

OptionVotes

YES

1250

613

Will India institutionalise same-sex marriage or civil unions before 2026?

Oct 17, 1:05 PMJan 31, 3:59 PM

25.84%chance

16413

OptionVotes

YES

1084

959

Will the Republicans win a trifecta in 2024 (controlling House, Senate and President)?

Dec 1, 6:36 PMNov 5, 4:59 AM

38.61%chance

293995

OptionVotes

YES

1038

908

Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 19, 4:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.07%chance

15820

OptionVotes

YES

1138

885

The US becomes much more like shadowrun before EOY 2024

Sep 22, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

11228

OptionVotes

YES

1168

929

Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2024?

Apr 3, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.55%chance

503328

OptionVotes

YES

1311

632

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Apr 27, 10:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.1%chance

321025

OptionVotes

YES

1352

674

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Aug 7, 7:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

83.68%chance

261211

OptionVotes

YES

1263

916

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Institute for Government News

Prediction markets for Institute for Government

Prediction markets for Institute for Government

Prediction markets for Institute for Government

US Government official visits Wuhan Institute of Virology any time through 2027

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Will India institutionalise same-sex marriage or civil unions before 2026?

Will the Republicans win a trifecta in 2024 (controlling House, Senate and President)?

Will any former or current US president openly support sedition before January 1st, 2030?

The US becomes much more like shadowrun before EOY 2024

Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2024?

Will a Ukrainian citizen be deported from the EU for the purpose of forcing them into military conscription?

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Institute for Government

Prediction markets for Institute for Government

Prediction markets for Institute for Government

US Government official visits Wuhan Institute of Virology any time through 2027

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Will India institutionalise same-sex marriage or civil unions before 2026?

Will the Republicans win a trifecta in 2024 (controlling House, Senate and President)?