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How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1514861

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

38.03%chance

373734

OptionVotes

YES

1028

869

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7921645

OptionVotes

YES

2729

2049

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.44%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

1576

1429

If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.74%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

1645

1373

Will the global consumption of renewable energy increase by at least 10% in 2024?

Dec 1, 9:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.03%chance

946379

OptionVotes

YES

2252

1344

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.53%chance

642821

OptionVotes

YES

1257

1245

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.47%chance

622949

OptionVotes

YES

1554

885

Will our Twitter impressions increase significantly if we remove our Gold Checkmark?

May 6, 10:55 PMAug 14, 5:59 AM

27.86%chance

335345

OptionVotes

YES

1764

1041

Will the Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Study by the LEVF succeed in increasing mouse lifespan 12 months?

Jan 9, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.16%chance

272070

OptionVotes

YES

1006

981

🏛💸Capital Gains Tax Increase Before 2026?

Apr 19, 4:02 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

33.79%chance

21368

OptionVotes

YES

1014

979

Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Oct 2024?

Jan 30, 2:59 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

24.1%chance

11144

OptionVotes

YES

1080

961

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How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Will the global consumption of renewable energy increase by at least 10% in 2024?

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

Will our Twitter impressions increase significantly if we remove our Gold Checkmark?

Will the Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Study by the LEVF succeed in increasing mouse lifespan 12 months?

🏛💸Capital Gains Tax Increase Before 2026?

Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Oct 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for InCred

Prediction markets for InCred

Prediction markets for InCred

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Will the global consumption of renewable energy increase by at least 10% in 2024?

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?