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Putin Announces Resumption of Missile Production at Security Council Meeting on June 28
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Russia
Economics
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BLACKPINK's Rosé Joins Rihanna and Dua Lipa as PUMA's Newest Global Ambassador
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4
13 days
Culture

Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?

Feb 22, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.5%chance

129186341

OptionVotes

YES

147382

70460

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

29354549189

OptionVotes

YES

12968

9380

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?

Jan 3, 4:02 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.36%chance

5601850477

OptionVotes

YES

30875

6590

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.34%chance

1779986891

OptionVotes

YES

6242

4583

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.89%chance

714302173

OptionVotes

YES

22056

17095

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.47%chance

262537507

OptionVotes

YES

3234

1556

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

28.59%chance

11148512

OptionVotes

YES

1580

633

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)

May 16, 4:58 PMJul 8, 6:59 PM

95.21%chance

630442334

OptionVotes

YES

239945

14200

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Jan 2, 8:16 AMDec 26, 7:59 AM

24.62%chance

223177321

OptionVotes

YES

18626

13460

What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025?

Aug 26, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15858595

Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?

Jul 1, 3:01 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

52.4%chance

10118422

OptionVotes

YES

20024

19871

Will working be necessary in 2070?

May 11, 3:08 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26%chance

249139855

OptionVotes

YES

3731

1301

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Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025?

Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?

Will working be necessary in 2070?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for IN

Prediction markets for IN

Prediction markets for IN

Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article?

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?