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Prediction markets for Humane Letters

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.2%chance

15086287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7353

1128

Will the US government commit to legal restrictions on large AI training runs by January 1st, 2025?

Apr 1, 3:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.66%chance

7716955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1770

1210

Will AI correctly see what tabs I have open before 2025?

Feb 10, 12:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.3%chance

481531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

847

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

18.49%chance

101850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2100

476

Will language models be able to solve simple graphical mazes by the end of 2025?

Jul 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65%chance

151904

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

932

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

Feb 22, 8:28 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

18.8%chance

283132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

964

Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?

Nov 8, 5:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.76%chance

141679

OptionVotes

NO

YES

954

942

Will it be confirmed by 2026 that OpenAI had a model/system called Q* or Zero?

Nov 23, 12:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.6%chance

11526

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1367

889

Fully automated plate racking before 2027?

Oct 20, 8:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.95%chance

9204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

520

387

What human rights violations & other such medieval crap will the government of Singapore still have by 2030? (Add more!)

Jan 23, 12:46 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

18635

Vox Future Perfect 2024: The FDA will approve MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD?

Feb 1, 4:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.87%chance

4229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

21

Will the US FDA recognize cum as a food group by 2024?

Oct 2, 7:58 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

4.74%chance

171789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

964

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