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House Intelligence News
Prediction markets for House Intelligence
Prediction markets for House Intelligence
Will Mike Turner be removed from the House Intelligence Committee in 2024?
Feb 15, 6:35 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
28.84%
chance
6
59
Option
Votes
YES
NO
171
135
In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?
Feb 20, 10:35 PM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
32.24%
chance
128
6951
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3101
2083
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
May 17, 1:00 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
26%
chance
17
479
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1036
905
Will an effective accelerationist (e/acc) be in an important AI policy role for the White House before the end of 2025?
Jul 2, 11:46 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
16.09%
chance
7
1310
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2283
438
Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?
Jan 7, 5:04 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
17.89%
chance
15
1304
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1541
705
Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?
Mar 24, 3:56 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
19%
chance
10
251
Option
Votes
YES
NO
269
154
Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?
Mar 19, 4:38 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
3.97%
chance
6
272
Option
Votes
YES
NO
440
121
When will Biden publicly say the term 'AGI' (or 'Artificial General Intelligence')?
Mar 31, 6:13 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 PM
2
10
If Trump wins, who will be the White House’s important AI policy officials in 2025?
Jul 2, 11:36 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
2
400
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