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Hot Ones News
Prediction markets for Hot Ones
Prediction markets for Hot Ones
By 2025, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?
Feb 7, 4:44 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
29.84%
chance
131
13326
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3206
1268
🎵 By 2026, will any fully AI-generated song hit the Billboard Hot 100 or Spotify Top 50 for at least one week?
Mar 27, 3:38 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
36.9%
chance
77
3545
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1364
764
By 2030, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?
Feb 7, 5:03 PM
Dec 30, 9:29 PM
92.09%
chance
50
1616
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1813
877
One month from today will Not Like Us by Kendrick Lamar still be in the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100?
Jun 16, 5:47 AM
Jul 17, 3:59 AM
84%
chance
6
412
Option
Votes
NO
YES
229
44
📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
Dec 14, 10:57 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
266
84686
Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]
Jul 26, 1:31 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
36.06%
chance
18
1026
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1021
939
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
291509
Will Joey Chestnut compete at Nathan's hot dog eating contest in 2024?
Jun 11, 9:17 PM
Jul 5, 3:59 AM
1%
chance
6
9782
Option
Votes
YES
NO
9950
101
Will the "Hot Stove Theory of Iteration" be cited by someone important by EOY 2030?
Feb 8, 1:23 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
66.89%
chance
9
65
Option
Votes
NO
YES
232
195
Which shows will finish first?
Mar 28, 9:16 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
5
70
Which will happen first: first hot US President 👸or US gets into a new woman war 💥🪖?
Feb 23, 1:54 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
20
301
When will I mistake an AI-generated song for a popular human-created song, in at least 1 of 5 tries?
Nov 19, 11:03 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
35
7663
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3 months
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