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Prediction markets for Guinness
Which books in this list will I "really like"?
Mar 27, 3:20 PM
Mar 28, 6:59 AM
122
18313
Which of these books will I really like?
May 31, 10:47 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
23
2874
What books will I enjoy reading?
Apr 27, 1:31 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
172
34997
Which elite global achievers will join manifold? Nobel prize, Nebula, Pope, EGOT, Pulitzer? 50+ Y/N options, research op
Dec 1, 5:39 PM
Jul 1, 4:59 AM
19
2655
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
Dec 31, 9:59 PM
Jan 1, 7:00 AM
50.53%
chance
19
516
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1053
920
Will Jimmy Carter be alive during a year with 0 cases of Guinea worm?
Apr 19, 7:53 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
59.94%
chance
6
478
Option
Votes
NO
YES
301
189
Will Guinea's planned elections occur?
Dec 5, 11:54 PM
Jul 1, 10:59 PM
37.86%
chance
3
18
Option
Votes
YES
NO
125
98
Will the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declare Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) as eradicated by 2030?
Dec 16, 11:06 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
51.43%
chance
3
33
Option
Votes
YES
NO
213
184
How many human cases of Guinea worm disease in 2024?
May 5, 1:14 AM
Mar 2, 7:59 AM
1
19
In what year will Equatorial Guinea move its capital to Ciudad de la Paz?
Feb 1, 1:04 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
1
70
Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030?
May 1, 9:23 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
49.71%
chance
1
1
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1001
999
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Sep 25, 8:23 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
16.85%
chance
26
3557
Option
Votes
NO
YES
964
914
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