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Prediction markets for Group 11

Conditional on having received grant money (after Aug 11, 2022) from a group in the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings, will 1 or more grant recipient be asked to pay at least some of their grant money back?

Nov 28, 4:38 AMJun 27, 11:59 PM

95.6%chance

182812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2105

853

Of the 28 students in the group, 11 participate in football, 15 in wrestling, and 15 in basketball. 5 people participate

Nov 6, 10:36 AM

00

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Satellite downed by offensive operation before 2026?

May 22, 8:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.08%chance

425900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1935

517

Will "FTX Foundation, Inc." (i.e., the non-profit Future Fund entity) be added to the debtor group as part of the FTX bankruptcy proceedings?

Nov 28, 4:34 AMJun 27, 10:59 PM

17.71%chance

19651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1423

857

How many successful landing attempts will SpaceX have in their current run?

Jul 27, 6:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.51%chance

16487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

993

Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 2:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.67%chance

713462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

891

Will American Football still be the most popular spectator sport in the US in 2028?

Dec 23, 7:26 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

95%chance

141818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1815

864

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024

Sep 11, 4:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

What percentage of their money will FTX customers get back, on average?

Dec 23, 2:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

97.99%chance

215211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3143

186

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in the USA in 2024

Dec 20, 6:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

6.18%chance

4270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

29

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe in 2024

Sep 11, 4:23 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

34.38%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

93

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