Global Times News

Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040

Jun 15, 9:49 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

9.54%chance

161801

OptionVotes

YES

1485

869

By the end of 2024, will anyone in leagues have gotten global first place at least 4 times?

Nov 1, 7:06 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.63%chance

746

OptionVotes

YES

192

127

Will anyone remain in global first place in leagues four times in a row before the end of 2024?

Nov 1, 7:05 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.11%chance

757

OptionVotes

YES

200

151

How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? Biggest movie of all time?

Jun 24, 6:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

152605

What will be true of the Riot/League of Legends MMO at launch?

Mar 21, 4:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11501

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

10098

9894

Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?

Sep 15, 3:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.4%chance

13036732

OptionVotes

YES

23012

2256

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.45%chance

2217148

OptionVotes

YES

1016

956

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Oct 4, 5:15 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.1%chance

342511

OptionVotes

YES

1781

1157

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?

Nov 24, 11:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.67%chance

13512494

OptionVotes

YES

1689

857

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

Nov 5, 2:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.1%chance

302527

OptionVotes

YES

983

959

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

261714

OptionVotes

YES

1112

926

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Prediction markets for Global Times

Prediction markets for Global Times

Prediction markets for Global Times

Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040

By the end of 2024, will anyone in leagues have gotten global first place at least 4 times?

Will anyone remain in global first place in leagues four times in a row before the end of 2024?

How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? Biggest movie of all time?

What will be true of the Riot/League of Legends MMO at launch?

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Will there be a conflict between 3 or more states in the middle east before 2025?

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Global Times

Prediction markets for Global Times

Prediction markets for Global Times

Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040

By the end of 2024, will anyone in leagues have gotten global first place at least 4 times?

Will anyone remain in global first place in leagues four times in a row before the end of 2024?

How much will "Inside Out 2" gross at the box office? Biggest movie of all time?

What will be true of the Riot/League of Legends MMO at launch?

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)