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Prediction markets for Global Media

Will any social media platform surpass Facebook in terms of global active users by the end of 2025?

Jan 23, 3:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47%chance

14289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

914

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

49.85%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Will some form of decentralized social media have at least 5% global user share by 2030?

Jan 28, 4:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.5%chance

983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

177

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.68%chance

16748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

950

Apple Vision Pro breaks 50% annual VR/AR device market share through 2026

Jun 6, 2:38 PMJun 7, 3:59 AM

22%chance

14470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

961

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Dec 28, 1:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.62%chance

20914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

954

Will the pope announce the second coming of Jesus Christ within the next 30 days ?

Jun 18, 3:14 PMJul 18, 9:59 PM

1%chance

3910372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2025?

Dec 17, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9%chance

211332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

913

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024 (explicitly by 1st of January 2025)?

Apr 18, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8%chance

111384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

914

Will Jordan Peterson be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 2, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.08%chance

23859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

948

2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?

Oct 12, 10:23 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

5.77%chance

171234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

953

Which will be the first 6th generation fighter to enter service with a country's military?

Apr 6, 7:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

5241

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