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Prediction markets for Global Human Rights
Prediction markets for Global Human Rights
Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House?
Dec 2, 5:16 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
73.16%
chance
84
10236
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1894
1124
Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?
Dec 1, 10:48 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9.23%
chance
33
10201
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3317
838
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%
chance
7
176
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1107
903
Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]
Jul 26, 1:31 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
36.06%
chance
18
1026
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1021
939
Will the Netherlands contribute €180 million to the Global Fund during the 2023-2025 period, as pledged in 2022?
Jan 2, 8:16 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
35.63%
chance
5
74
Option
Votes
YES
NO
366
327
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe in 2024
Sep 11, 4:23 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
34.38%
chance
4
25
Option
Votes
YES
NO
135
93
Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?
May 2, 8:51 PM
Jan 1, 3:00 AM
3.12%
chance
15
2305
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1801
924
Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Sep 11, 4:24 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
81.61%
chance
4
163
Option
Votes
NO
YES
189
74
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U.S. Congress Probes Brazil Censorship, Targets Justice de Moraes
Authors
14
2 months
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