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Prediction markets for General World Models

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.32%chance

178405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6331

3305

Will any LLM released by EOY 2025 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?

Sep 20, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.88%chance

423237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1827

1226

Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2025?

Feb 16, 12:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.31%chance

564031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

805

Will any LLM released by EOY 2024 be dangerously ASL-3 as defined by Anthropic?

Sep 20, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.17%chance

704462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

985

981

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.71%chance

231010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

935

3) The terms “large language model” and “LLM” will become less common.

Dec 25, 1:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.62%chance

441315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1248

857

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

921

Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:47 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

10.25%chance

437425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2163

737

Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1 , 2025?

May 29, 6:38 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

10%chance

16734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

875

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Jun 3, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

7276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

524

438

Will scientific journal publisher MDPI have a better reputation by 2027?

Sep 2, 9:44 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

127

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15 days
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