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Prediction markets for General Public
Prediction markets for General Public
Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)?
Mar 15, 4:23 PM
Dec 31, 9:29 AM
25.86%
chance
103
7356
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2170
772
Will a weakly general AI become publicly known before 2030?
Mar 19, 11:06 PM
Dec 31, 5:59 AM
76.54%
chance
20
354
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1140
937
Will Sora be released to the general public before Jimmy Carter dies
Mar 29, 10:56 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
49.62%
chance
15
395
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1062
929
Will Duolingo be provided access to using GPT-5 before GPT-5 is released to the general public?
Mar 20, 3:28 PM
Dec 31, 6:29 PM
41.99%
chance
37
1045
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1071
869
In the end of 2028, will the public generally accept that talking with AI Girlfriends is cheating?
Dec 18, 1:31 AM
Jan 1, 2:59 AM
33.58%
chance
16
363
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1037
954
Would the general public narrative about why Sam Altman was fired from OpenAI be significantly different 1 year later?
Nov 21, 12:22 PM
Nov 30, 6:29 AM
19.98%
chance
20
2359
Option
Votes
NO
YES
907
616
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
May 25, 4:15 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
22
11732
Will it be easy for members of the general public to get proteomics of their own blood for <$500 by EOY 2024?
Oct 5, 4:55 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
36.61%
chance
4
65
Option
Votes
YES
NO
149
114
When will Figure launch their humanoid robot for the general public to buy?
Aug 3, 8:57 AM
Jan 1, 12:59 PM
1
40
When will Biden publicly say the term 'AGI' (or 'Artificial General Intelligence')?
Mar 31, 6:13 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 PM
2
10
Will Tesla make a humanoid robot available to the general public in 2024?
Apr 25, 12:49 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
3.46%
chance
8
382
Option
Votes
YES
NO
531
143
Will certain contemporary publicly available GPT models be generally accepted as conscious at inference time by 2100?
Nov 30, 5:15 AM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
31.03%
chance
4
53
Option
Votes
YES
NO
157
112
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