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General Assembly News
Prediction markets for General Assembly
Prediction markets for General Assembly
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
Nov 2, 4:01 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
19.49%
chance
11
467
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1023
788
Who will be the next UN General secretary?
Apr 12, 11:31 PM
Dec 31, 12:59 PM
5
55
Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?
Nov 17, 7:38 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
30.39%
chance
21
1033
Option
Votes
NO
YES
998
978
Will California AI bill (SB-1047) be signed into law with the "kill switch" requirement?
Jun 12, 10:46 PM
Oct 2, 6:59 AM
59.74%
chance
6
225
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1218
821
Will there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030?
Apr 4, 11:46 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
75.46%
chance
10
170
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1057
971
🇮🇱 Will 'Greater Israel' successfully include all the territories of Gaza and West Bank by 2030? 🇮🇱
Nov 1, 6:37 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
16.81%
chance
22
1659
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1390
877
Will UNRWA continue to operate in the Palestinian territories (Gaza or West Bank) by EOY 2025?
Feb 25, 5:30 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
78.96%
chance
17
584
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1273
832
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
Mar 25, 11:43 AM
Dec 31, 12:00 PM
22.82%
chance
57
7307
Option
Votes
NO
YES
965
795
Will a robot zero-shot assemble a 100+ piece Lego set in 2024?
Jan 9, 4:16 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
9.63%
chance
16
400
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1176
956
Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?
Nov 5, 3:13 AM
Nov 12, 4:59 AM
7.23%
chance
11
377
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1141
963
Will the UN issue a resolution condemning or endorsing solar geoengineering by 2028?
Feb 11, 1:09 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
16
230
How will the first artificial molecular assembler be constructed?
Aug 20, 4:59 AM
Dec 20, 7:59 AM
13
205
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