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Prediction markets for General AI

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14033883

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.48%chance

22714708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2634

1483

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.37%chance

959592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1993

1938

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.72%chance

632809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

1044

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

65.2%chance

251196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1042

970

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Oct 25, 8:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.43%chance

757989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

956

Will a moderator ask about catastrophic AI risks in a US 2024 general presidential election debate?

Sep 2, 8:55 PMNov 10, 4:59 AM

27.07%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

964

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

980

Will a weakly general AI become publicly known before 2030?

Mar 19, 11:06 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

76.54%chance

20354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

937

Will AI have a significant impact on a national (general) election in an OECD country by 01-01-2028?

Aug 19, 10:41 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

82.63%chance

241228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1472

832

In the end of 2028, will the public generally accept that talking with AI Girlfriends is cheating?

Dec 18, 1:31 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

33.58%chance

16363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

954

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.81%chance

101171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

985

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