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Prediction markets for Freshman

Will Theo Baker sell the film rights to the story of him taking down the President of Stanford as a freshman?

Jul 22, 6:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.64%chance

16808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

927

Will "A freshman year during the AI midgame: my app..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Mar 8, 5:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

36.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

34

Harvard University’s freshman class size increases by at least 25% before 2026.

Oct 7, 6:48 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

16.92%chance

7699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

239

The Sexual Marketplace: Which national political figures will have a new sex scandal (true or not) before 2025?

Dec 4, 2:29 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

7126921

Will the Harvard class of 2028 have <15% African American students?

Jun 29, 11:13 PMAug 16, 6:59 AM

69.86%chance

785608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

1104

Will I still do Olympiad Geometry in college?

Jan 2, 9:21 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

77.95%chance

355088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

885

Will I drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:39 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

26.89%chance

16894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

869

Will I get an English Major at Tufts?

Jun 1, 4:24 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

32.85%chance

141223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

796

Which college(s) will I get into?

Jan 21, 7:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3514367

Will a majority of Harvard undergrads train an LLM within 3 years as per Altman?

May 3, 10:33 AMJun 5, 3:59 AM

2.52%chance

23770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

916

Will I get a CS Major at Tufts?

Jun 3, 5:58 PMJun 1, 6:59 AM

91.68%chance

5521

OptionVotes

NO

YES

442

274

Will Black Students Be Less Than 10% of the Ivy League Class of 2028?

Dec 2, 8:33 AMOct 1, 10:59 PM

18.91%chance

488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

52

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