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Fraction News
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Prediction markets for Fraction
What will be humanity’s expansion rate as a fraction of c?
Jan 28, 1:59 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
59%
chance
10
495
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1005
984
What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?
Oct 21, 1:47 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
78.11%
chance
14
1213
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1110
947
Resolves as half the fractional change in CO2 emissions between 2030 and 2023 [added liquidity]
Mar 1, 10:44 AM
Feb 1, 11:59 PM
48.58%
chance
8
331
Option
Votes
YES
NO
876
624
What fraction by value of Bitcoin UTXOs from 2020-01-01 will be spent by 2030-01-01?
Jan 7, 11:15 PM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
73.15%
chance
4
49
Option
Votes
NO
YES
127
68
What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01?
Apr 4, 12:53 AM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
1
10
What fraction of Turing machines implement halting functions?
Dec 29, 6:44 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
4
40
Among GitHub Copilot users, some fraction of their code is written by themselves and some generated by the model. In any population of users, what will be the highest fraction generated by the model as reported by a credible source by 2025?
Oct 22, 10:09 AM
Dec 31, 11:00 PM
5
56
What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?
Apr 3, 11:21 PM
Jan 2, 5:59 AM
3
132
What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?
Dec 30, 12:00 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
21.33%
chance
11
383
Option
Votes
YES
NO
241
164
What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?
Aug 25, 9:31 PM
Jun 26, 3:59 AM
4
196
What fraction of Turing machines implement halting functions?
Dec 29, 11:54 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
5
262
What fraction of World Esperanto Congresses will be held on each continent in the next decade?
Mar 29, 10:24 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
1
10
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