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Prediction markets for Founders

Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024?

Nov 17, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.3%chance

493398129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16682

1194

Will Yahya Sinwar, founder of Hamas, survive 2024?

Jan 2, 8:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.68%chance

617696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

922

Will Lex Fridman interview Jensen Huang(founder of Nvidia) by the end of 2024?

Mar 2, 7:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

63.65%chance

26485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

992

Will Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 6, 3:09 AMDec 31, 5:00 PM

90%chance

133461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2807

509

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:12 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.9%chance

16897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

953

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

287203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

949

Will Jack Dorsey (Co-founder of Twitter) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 2, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.72%chance

14681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

937

Will Brian Armstrong (founder of Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 27, 11:22 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

6.75%chance

16617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

944

Will Barry Silbert (Digital Currency Group founder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 7, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

70

Will Jimmy Wales (co-founder of Wikipedia) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 13, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.41%chance

7205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

148

Will Antoni Trenchev (co-founder of Nexo exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 30, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.65%chance

6910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

108

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