Financial Post News

Will "My experience using financial commitments to ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 30, 6:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

29.62%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

114

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

Jan 1, 1:43 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.22%chance

16352

OptionVotes

YES

1067

959

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.42%chance

15544

OptionVotes

YES

1017

911

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

Jan 23, 3:07 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

18.37%chance

369823

OptionVotes

YES

1217

910

Zvi Blind vs. Manifold 2024 ACX Predictions: Who Maximizes Brier Score? (% resolution)

Jan 8, 11:11 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

45.32%chance

11258

OptionVotes

YES

1068

900

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.89%chance

151304

OptionVotes

YES

1541

705

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2025?

Nov 12, 11:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.19%chance

292659

OptionVotes

YES

1419

891

Will @Austin ever be a billionaire?

Nov 14, 5:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.35%chance

4028196

OptionVotes

YES

1418

916

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2024?

Sep 21, 7:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

131111

OptionVotes

YES

1912

887

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2024?

Sep 21, 7:18 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.04%chance

111503

OptionVotes

YES

1781

908

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

May 13, 3:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.46%chance

10292

OptionVotes

YES

101

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

May 6, 8:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.85%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

215

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Financial Post News

Prediction markets for Financial Post

Prediction markets for Financial Post

Prediction markets for Financial Post

Will "My experience using financial commitments to ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

Zvi Blind vs. Manifold 2024 ACX Predictions: Who Maximizes Brier Score? (% resolution)

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2025?

Will @Austin ever be a billionaire?

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2024?

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2024?

Will the international space station be officially decommissioned before the end of 2030?

Will many visual artists in the US be compensated for AI models trained on their work before the end of 2027?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Financial Post

Prediction markets for Financial Post

Prediction markets for Financial Post

Will "My experience using financial commitments to ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Jeff Bezos sell/close the Washington Post by 2030?

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Will my stock trading model exceed 100% CAGR?

Zvi Blind vs. Manifold 2024 ACX Predictions: Who Maximizes Brier Score? (% resolution)

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Will Apple announce it has agreed to acquire Disney by the end of 2025?