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Prediction markets for Fellowship
Prediction markets for Fellowship
WhiteBox Research will get at least one fellow accepted into a ≥0.5 FTE AI safety research fellowship by EoY 2024.
Jun 20, 12:06 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
52.5%
chance
1
53
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1051
951
Will the Center for AI Safety run another large-scale philosophy research fellowship in 2024?
Dec 24, 4:45 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
43%
chance
10
734
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1061
907
Will a regular of c-Haus in Cambridge, MA (Lucas Chu's) win the Thiel Fellowship in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Jan 3, 4:35 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
24.6%
chance
7
131
Option
Votes
YES
NO
141
62
Will Logan Collins win an emergent ventures fellowship
Jan 23, 5:59 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
45%
chance
0
5
Option
Votes
YES
NO
55
45
Will Theodore Weld Smith of moda fund win a Thiel Fellowship
Apr 25, 4:59 AM
Jan 1, 4:01 PM
19.61%
chance
1
1
Option
Votes
YES
NO
71
70
Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?
Apr 20, 10:54 PM
Apr 28, 6:59 AM
48.39%
chance
9
1202
Option
Votes
YES
NO
195
150
Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?
Apr 20, 10:44 PM
Nov 1, 8:01 AM
32.43%
chance
3
29
Option
Votes
NO
YES
130
95
Will Lada Nuzhna win the Hertz Fellowship?
Jan 7, 2:52 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
35.7%
chance
2
20
Option
Votes
YES
NO
110
75
Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?
Jan 1, 5:57 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
44.8%
chance
3
15
Option
Votes
YES
NO
94
86
Will Nathan Cofnas lose his Leverhulme fellowship at the University of Cambridge?
Feb 18, 7:43 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 AM
50%
chance
3
99
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
75
Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?
Apr 21, 10:24 AM
Apr 29, 6:59 AM
41.35%
chance
4
30
Option
Votes
YES
NO
143
100
Will a regular of Arcadia House (Isaak Freeman's) win the Thiel Fellowship in 2024, 2025, or 2026?
Jan 3, 4:34 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
75%
chance
5
149
Option
Votes
NO
YES
180
65
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12
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Authors
9
6 months
AI
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14
7 months
AI
NFT
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Fellowship Trust and Fellowship AI to Showcase Digital Art and NFTs at Paris Photo Fair
Authors
4
8 months
AI
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