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Prediction markets for External

Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?

Jul 4, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.35%chance

592616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

889

Will 500,000 Palestinian civilians be externally displaced from Gaza by the end of 2024?

Dec 28, 6:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.84%chance

221462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

815

Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

May 3, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.7%chance

20224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1102

949

Will Google announce a Pixel model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

May 3, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.06%chance

11116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

952

Will Tumblr support following external ActivityPub accounts by EoY 2025

Nov 26, 10:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

10429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

907

Will "AI companies aren't really using external eva..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 24, 8:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.37%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

803

Will Apple release a new external monitor by June 30, 2024?

Sep 1, 6:20 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

3.71%chance

4499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

558

27

Will Google announce a Pixel model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2029?

May 2, 6:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.53%chance

877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

73

Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?

Aug 4, 7:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

80.36%chance

6181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

124

Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2029?

May 2, 6:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.02%chance

551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18043066

What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]

Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

488154

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