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Prediction markets for European security
Prediction markets for European security
Will Ursula von der Leyen secure a second term as European Commission president?
Jan 2, 9:07 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
89%
chance
26
5799
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2450
547
Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?
Jun 3, 9:34 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
35.39%
chance
14
835
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1351
740
Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?
Sep 25, 8:23 PM
Mar 1, 7:59 AM
78.72%
chance
10
198
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1103
957
Will the EU parliament strip Hungary of voting rights?
Jan 17, 1:26 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
16.27%
chance
14
497
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1276
912
Will MEP Tatjana Ždanoka be arrested in 2024?
Jan 29, 7:14 PM
Dec 31, 9:59 PM
61.69%
chance
11
765
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1181
302
Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?
May 23, 2:00 AM
Dec 31, 8:00 PM
10.83%
chance
8
246
Option
Votes
YES
NO
416
105
Will TikTok Lite Be Banned in the EU Before 2025?
Apr 18, 6:56 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
38.23%
chance
5
110
Option
Votes
YES
NO
175
113
How many of the FT writers’ predictions for the world in 2024 will turn out to be correct?
Dec 31, 1:48 PM
Dec 30, 9:59 PM
49%
chance
4
208
Option
Votes
YES
NO
99
78
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4 months
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5
5 months
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5
9 months
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