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Prediction markets for Employment

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be employed at one of the top AI labs in 2023 or 2024?

Feb 27, 12:43 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

10.5%chance

16114790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5184

1733

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

60%chance

252077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1374

863

Will Robert Winnett be employed as editor of the Washington Post at any time in 2024?

Jun 17, 2:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Anthropic employ Scott Aaronson before Spring 2025?

Jun 3, 6:13 PMMar 22, 6:59 AM

44.46%chance

161346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

895

Will Article 7 of the EU be employed against Hungary before 2027?

Jan 15, 11:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.96%chance

12345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

957

In one year, will I still be employed for FAANG in the Bay Area as a software engineer?

Sep 1, 3:24 AMSep 8, 6:59 AM

77.19%chance

11755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

944

Will the BLS show growth in delivery truck driver employment through 2029?

May 7, 9:29 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

53.21%chance

10210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

856

Will there be more paralegals and legal assistants employed in 2026 than today?

Mar 18, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.05%chance

13240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

965

Will Avital Balwit be employed in 2030, after writing about her last 5 years of work?

May 20, 12:23 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

79.75%chance

213615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

Nov 2, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.18%chance

14609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

997

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

13.17%chance

472258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

926

Will Manifold employ or consult with a professional mathematician or economist before July 1, 2024?

May 6, 7:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.47%chance

271946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2582

581

Articles

Latest stories

Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya Appointed as Minister of Labour and Employment and Youth Affairs and Sports in Delhi on June 11
Authors
6
16 days
India
World

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