Electoral College News

Nate Silver's First 2024 Model: Trump Has 66% Chance of Winning, Not a Toss-Up
Authors
9
4 days
Politics
Trump Leads Biden in Arizona and National Polls, Gallego vs Lake in Arizona, DecisionDeskHQ Forecast Favors Trump
Authors
20
7 days
Arizona
World
Politics

Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?

Feb 6, 11:18 PMNov 9, 7:59 AM

49.92%chance

742452

OptionVotes

YES

1457

1003

Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?

Nov 1, 9:06 PMJan 9, 5:59 AM

75.14%chance

17871

OptionVotes

YES

1017

982

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 12:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.61%chance

27665

OptionVotes

YES

1235

906

Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024?

Jan 30, 12:08 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

77.22%chance

291458

OptionVotes

YES

1142

943

In 2024, a US state will override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college

Nov 11, 2:46 PMJan 6, 5:23 PM

19.92%chance

14501

OptionVotes

YES

1040

972

Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP

Jan 3, 4:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82%chance

231813

OptionVotes

YES

1120

953

Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 200,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?

Mar 20, 5:51 AMNov 9, 7:59 AM

68.85%chance

16393

OptionVotes

YES

1178

878

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.56%chance

11223

OptionVotes

YES

1077

932

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Oct 29, 5:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.02%chance

131343

OptionVotes

YES

1071

948

If Donald Trump wins the electoral college, will he NOT take office?

Nov 17, 3:17 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

17%chance

13690

OptionVotes

YES

1053

972

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Nov 7, 2:31 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

16.47%chance

12384

OptionVotes

YES

1107

961

Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level

Jan 3, 4:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.09%chance

11671

OptionVotes

YES

1210

930

Latest stories

Nate Silver's First 2024 Model: Trump Has 66% Chance of Winning, Not a Toss-Up
Authors
9
4 days
Politics
Trump Leads Biden in Arizona and National Polls, Gallego vs Lake in Arizona, DecisionDeskHQ Forecast Favors Trump
Authors
20
7 days
Arizona
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House Passes Equal Representation Act; Senate Must Act
Authors
7
2 months
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U.S. House Passes Equal Representation Act to Exclude Illegal Aliens and Prevent Election Influence
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10
2 months
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Maine Democrats Threaten Electoral Change in Response to Nebraska's Potential Shift
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6
2 months
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Maine May Adopt Winner-Take-All Electoral Format, Countering Nebraska's Trump-Focused Plan
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7
2 months
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Nebraska GOP Leaders Endorse Special Session for Winner-Take-All Vote Change
Authors
18
3 months
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2024 Election: Swing State Polls Show Tight Race, Demographic Shifts Favor Trump Among Youth
Authors
13
3 months
China
World
Politics
2024 Election: Biden and Trump Neck and Neck with Seniors Crucial; Young Voters Shift to Trump, Seniors Back Biden
Authors
11
3 months
Politics
Gov. Jim Pillen, former President Trump: Nebraska Trump loyalists push for 'winner-take-all' electoral-votes system despite challenges
Authors
13
3 months
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Biden Campaign Quietly Reaches Out to NE Democrats as GOP Vote Change Effort Could Complicate Path to 270
Authors
4
3 months
New York
Politics
Nebraska's Electoral Vote Change Effort Fails 8-36 Vote Amid GOP Push
Authors
59
3 months
Politics
Miller Claims Illegal Immigration Could Halve California's 54 Electoral Votes; Analysis Disputes
Authors
6
3 months
Politics
Elon Musk, Stephen Miller Criticize Democrats for Exploiting Illegal Immigration
Authors
14
3 months
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Trump Campaign Claims Dems Aim to Steal Election, Inflate Electoral Power via Immigrants
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8
3 months
Culture
Senate Blocks Equal Representation Act, Keeping Illegal Immigrants in Census for 13 Extra Districts
Authors
21
4 months
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Senate Blocks Hagerty's Bill on Census, Fueling Electoral Power Debate
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16
4 months
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Senate Unanimously Defeats Hagerty's Amendment Amid 10 Million Illegals Debate
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19
4 months
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House GOP's Biden Impeachment Stalls; 86% Say 81-Year-Old Too Old, 82% Want New President
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8
4 months
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Conservative Representatives Back Equal Representation Act to Ensure Only Legal American Citizens Count in Congress and Elections, Preventing Impact of Illegal Immigrants
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5
4 months
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Illegal Immigration Under Biden Could Affect 22 US House Seats, Electoral College
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6
5 months
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GOP Targets Sanctuary Cities, Aims to Exclude Illegals from Census Counts
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4
5 months
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Maine Secretary of State Faces Fake Emergency Call After Removing Trump from Ballot, Condemned by Gov. Chris Sununu, Various Critics, and Bill Barr; Trump Expected to Appeal
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28
6 months
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Maine Secretary of State Removes Trump from 2024 Ballot, Sparks Controversy Over Insurrection Clause
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16
6 months
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Maine Sec. of State Bellows Faces Impeachment, Threats Over Trump Ballot Removal and 'Swatting' Incident
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77
6 months
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Bipartisan Anti-Trump Groups Fight No Labels' 2024 Third Candidate and Coalition Govt Plan
Authors
4
6 months
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No Labels Group Floats Coalition Gov't or U.S. House Selecting President in 2024 Election
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6
6 months
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Mike Pence Hesitates on Electoral College Certification, Sparks Concern Over Capitol Attack
Authors
5
7 months
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Mike Pence's Notes Show Reluctance to Preside Over Jan. 6 Electoral College Vote
Authors
8
7 months
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Pence's Notes Reveal Wavering on Jan. 6, Concerns About 'Too Hurtful to My Friend', Trump, and Capitol Attack
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8
7 months
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Polls Suggest Trump Would Win 2024 Election, Leads GOP Primary, Biden Leads NC Poll, Unfavorable Ratings for Both
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5
8 months
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Biden's Approval Ratings Drop in Recent Polls, Trump Gains Ground in 2024 Election
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8
9 months
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Electoral College News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?

Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024?

In 2024, a US state will override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college

Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP

Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 200,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

Will the US abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

If Donald Trump wins the electoral college, will he NOT take office?

[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?

Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Prediction markets for Electoral College

Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?

Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?

Will the US effectively abolish the Electoral College for presidential elections by 2040?

Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024?

In 2024, a US state will override its presidential election result to send different elector(s) to the electoral college