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Prediction markets for Digital World

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

Will India sign a deal with an African country to adopt its Aadhaar digital-identity system in 2024?

Dec 1, 8:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.88%chance

402321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

1145

In 2024, will the Bank of Japan announce the public rollout of its Central Bank Digital Currency?

Dec 2, 12:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.82%chance

383420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2855

1029

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

50.35%chance

161359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

993

Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?

Dec 1, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.23%chance

3310201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3317

838

Will Damien Hirst's "The Currency" be more valuable as an NFT than as a physical painting?

Oct 12, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.9%chance

17766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

951

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

70.27%chance

10336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

963

10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated]

Dec 25, 1:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.75%chance

431772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1300

767

Will Donald Trump use his Trump Media shares before the end of the lockup period?

Mar 24, 10:22 PMSep 26, 4:59 AM

53%chance

382267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

821

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

921

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

Will handheld or desktop monitors become obsolete by the end of 2025?

Jul 30, 6:29 PMDec 31, 8:01 PM

12.16%chance

13770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

947

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