Definitive Intelligence News

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

Mar 7, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.91%chance

123595

OptionVotes

YES

1077

949

What is the best definition of intelligence? (add your own)

Apr 10, 7:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

271157

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16%chance

616628

OptionVotes

YES

1246

922

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

96.14%chance

10423395

OptionVotes

YES

10283

728

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

Jan 18, 9:10 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

84.42%chance

392026

OptionVotes

YES

1180

940

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.17%chance

402419

OptionVotes

YES

1480

919

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26%chance

17479

OptionVotes

YES

1036

905

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

May 30, 4:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.51%chance

262947

OptionVotes

YES

1126

945

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.32%chance

30802

OptionVotes

YES

1010

978

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2024?

Jun 20, 11:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.36%chance

344271

OptionVotes

YES

3836

261

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11366057

Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?

Mar 11, 5:20 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

87.43%chance

4975

OptionVotes

YES

164

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Definitive Intelligence News

Prediction markets for Definitive Intelligence

Prediction markets for Definitive Intelligence

Prediction markets for Definitive Intelligence

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

What is the best definition of intelligence? (add your own)

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

Has at least one alien been to Earth?

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2024?

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Definitive Intelligence

Prediction markets for Definitive Intelligence

Prediction markets for Definitive Intelligence

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

What is the best definition of intelligence? (add your own)

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?