Defense News

Putin Dismisses Four Deputy Defense Ministers, Appoints Billionaire Niece and Former PM's Son
Authors
28
13 days
Ukraine
World

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

32.91%chance

4814688

OptionVotes

YES

13903

7280

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

1030

981

Will Israel deploy its Iron Beam defense technology before 2025?

Dec 12, 7:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.36%chance

442379

OptionVotes

YES

1686

332

Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025?

Apr 7, 1:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

17.55%chance

29833

OptionVotes

YES

1275

911

Are Custom GPTs defensible? (resolves based on a poll)

Dec 3, 12:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.78%chance

16752

OptionVotes

YES

1056

921

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Aug 12, 4:40 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

44.8%chance

16832

OptionVotes

YES

1020

965

Will Lloyd Austin resign as Secretary of Defense during 2024?

Jan 6, 11:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.31%chance

688673

OptionVotes

YES

1569

560

Will Lloyd Austin still be the Secretary of Defense on Election Day 2024?

Jan 9, 1:34 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

92.27%chance

295772

OptionVotes

YES

2605

554

Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025?

May 12, 11:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.81%chance

291309

OptionVotes

YES

1152

937

Will Russia or North Korea honor their mutual defense pact if the other is attacked by a third party?

Jun 19, 4:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.16%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

149

Which month will Israel's Iron Beam defense be used for the first time?

Dec 28, 1:25 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9738

Who will be the next US Secretary of Defense?

Jan 11, 5:34 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

321781

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Defense News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Defense

Prediction markets for Defense

Prediction markets for Defense

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Will Israel deploy its Iron Beam defense technology before 2025?

Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025?

Are Custom GPTs defensible? (resolves based on a poll)

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Will Lloyd Austin resign as Secretary of Defense during 2024?

Will Lloyd Austin still be the Secretary of Defense on Election Day 2024?

Will Putin's former defense minister Sergei Shoigu be alive at the end of 2025?

Will Russia or North Korea honor their mutual defense pact if the other is attacked by a third party?

Which month will Israel's Iron Beam defense be used for the first time?

Who will be the next US Secretary of Defense?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Defense

Prediction markets for Defense

Prediction markets for Defense

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Will Israel deploy its Iron Beam defense technology before 2025?

Will any company form a defensible moat around LLM-based AI before 2025?

Are Custom GPTs defensible? (resolves based on a poll)

Will Elon Musk use the X rebrand as defense strategy during Twitter bankruptcy by December 2027?

Will Lloyd Austin resign as Secretary of Defense during 2024?