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COTELLIGENT INC
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COTELLIGENT INC
Prediction markets for COT
Prediction markets for COT
Will AGI be interpretable due to CoT and reflection and similar methods?
Jul 1, 1:26 PM
Jun 20, 9:59 PM
21.36%
chance
24
1172
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1268
847
What will be the cool word for "cool" in 2032?
Sep 20, 1:06 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
13
214
UK General Election: Which party will win Cotswolds North?
Jan 4, 2:38 PM
Jul 4, 10:59 PM
11
1114
UK General Election: Which party will win Cotswolds South?
Jan 4, 2:38 PM
Jul 4, 10:59 PM
8
346
UK General Election: Which party will win Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham?
Jan 8, 11:52 AM
Jul 4, 10:59 PM
2
193
When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?
Dec 17, 4:47 PM
Jan 1, 4:47 PM
12.92%
chance
14
272
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1001
976
Will I think that scheming benchmarks are more promising than game theory benchmarks (for defining trusted) in 1y?
Dec 13, 6:30 PM
Dec 14, 7:59 AM
54.16%
chance
4
64
Option
Votes
NO
YES
92
88
Can prompting improve LMs more than fine-tuning?
Mar 9, 3:13 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
56.66%
chance
7
118
Option
Votes
NO
YES
368
314
Can soft-prompting improve LLAMA-LM more than instruction fine-tuning, and chain-of-thought?
Mar 9, 11:17 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
47.99%
chance
3
35
Option
Votes
YES
NO
365
314
Did Google intentionally announce Gemini Ultra in a state barely outperforming GPT-4 to slow the capabilities race?
Dec 8, 2:19 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
7.05%
chance
10
429
Option
Votes
YES
NO
495
134
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5
5 months
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