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Consequence News
Prediction markets for Consequence
Prediction markets for Consequence
Will Keith Gill/"Deep Fucking Value"/"Roaring Kitty" face any legal consequences for pumping $GME?
Jun 14, 6:06 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
21.42%
chance
34
6728
Option
Votes
YES
NO
10915
9522
Will Apple face any non-monetary consequences in United States of America v. Apple Inc.?
Mar 21, 3:05 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
50.13%
chance
68
4619
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1394
693
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
41.01%
chance
9
900
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1199
834
Will someone die as the direct consequence of a Letzte Generation protest by 2025?
Mar 15, 7:47 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
25.89%
chance
12
264
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1075
961
Will Google suffer significant consequences over violating its ads standards around opt-out?
Jun 28, 10:55 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
35%
chance
21
231
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1019
986
Is the firing of Sam Altman and the current situation at OpenAI mainly a consequence of an internal breakthrough?
Nov 20, 2:26 AM
Nov 20, 4:59 AM
7.64%
chance
29
3585
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1837
853
Will a Sleeper Agent Attack on a major LLM (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) cause significant real-life consequences in 2024?
Jan 13, 6:28 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
5.28%
chance
38
2198
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2051
859
Which consequences will Donald Trump face?
Jan 23, 6:47 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
11
204
What consequences will Trump face for violating the judge’s orders in the hush month trial?
Apr 8, 5:28 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
4
851
1% of the US electorate will think a deepfaked video is true with a consequence of at least $1bn (my guess)
May 28, 12:44 PM
Nov 1, 11:59 PM
33.69%
chance
9
248
Option
Votes
NO
YES
185
179
Will Trump escape all legal consequences for 6-1-21 AND will Bolsanaro face legal consequences for 8-1-23?
Feb 8, 6:40 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
40.57%
chance
9
140
Option
Votes
YES
NO
256
248
Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?
Apr 24, 9:14 PM
Apr 24, 10:59 PM
65
2661
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