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Prediction markets for Community Initiative

Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 11, 3:03 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22.72%chance

25643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

969

Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 11:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

30.2%chance

21523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

882

Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 6:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.06%chance

13386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

737

Will Manifold raise a community round by the end of 2024?

May 16, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.25%chance

221018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

967

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

16.15%chance

171247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

888

Will "The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 1:54 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

74.67%chance

14337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

840

Will "Significantly Enhancing Adult Intelligence Wi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Feb 14, 6:37 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

68.75%chance

14450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

852

Will "On green" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 25, 12:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

80.45%chance

14720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

881

Will "AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentio..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Feb 13, 11:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

86.15%chance

12502

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

847

Will "You can just spontaneously call people you ha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Jun 29, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.54%chance

4108

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

795

Will "Truthseeking is the ground in which other pri..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 27, 1:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.13%chance

4260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

257

Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 7:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

42.77%chance

2250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1238

270

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