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Prediction markets for Common Cause

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

213391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3809

3207

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

48.04%chance

121390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

961

Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?

Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

74%chance

11207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

951

Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?

Feb 9, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.31%chance

231791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

939

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

82.06%chance

181842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1540

804

Does Covid-19 have hidden long-term negative health effects?

Mar 24, 8:05 AMMar 24, 10:59 PM

66.2%chance

27525

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1108

919

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

62.07%chance

17243

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

891

Will Israel return Lebanon/Hezbollah to the stone age before 2028?

Dec 27, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.55%chance

172930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

879

Will OpenAI give their new LLM an anthropomorphic name?

Feb 18, 6:11 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

683768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2447

627

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.99%chance

18902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1374

759

China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2030

Feb 16, 1:23 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

2255

Will the SSBM community abandon UCF as a result of the Nintendo community tournament guidelines?

Oct 25, 1:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.61%chance

142630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2744

838

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Lawsuits Filed Over Voter ID in Nevada and Racial Gerrymandering in North Carolina for 2024 Election and US House Lines
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